Halo Reach Is No Halo 3

Halo Reach couldn’t have picked a better time to come out. After the Summer doldrums, where the only big games included StarCraft 2, Mafia II, and maybe even NHL 11, Halo Reach hits at the peak of summer/fall boredom just before the Christmas season storm.



But will it sell more than Halo 3? I initially said no… Am I wrong? Read on.



Halo 3 was a monster, selling over 11 million units through today’s date. It did most of its damage during the first four weeks out, selling more than 5.5 million units. It was a phenomenon.



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Phenomenon.



At the time of Halo 3′s launch, gamers were clamoring for the first new Halo on the next-gen system. There were Mountain Dew promotions, Master Chief was everywhere. I don’t feel that same vibe this time around. Sure, there’s a lot of Halo Reach commercials, but where are the Burger King tie ins? The Mountain Dew flavors? (the current promotion is very understated.) The prime time news stories?



It seems that this time around, things are different. Halo Reach seems much less marketable. There’s no Master Chief. Without the titular character from three of the previous games, people may not immediately identify with the new “Halo Game”. Furthermore, it’s a prequel to one of the most convoluted universes in gaming.



Reach is more Empire Strikes Back than Return of the Jedi. Kind of a downer in tone… Plus, it has to fight the brand fatigue of three Halo games in almost 4 years.



These are the reasons why I don’t think it will sell as well as Halo 3. On the other hand, Halo Reach couldn’t have come out at a better time. There’s really nothing to play right now. Mafia II didn’t live up to the hype and StarCraft 2 is for PC gamers… Sure Civ 5 comes out soon, but it’s more likely to cannibalize the SC2 players than the Halo Reach players. So, in the midst of essentially a quiet period of gaming, Halo Reach came out and BAM! Everybody is on it.



Another factor, in favor of Halo Reach selling more than Halo 3, is the simple fact that there’s a much larger install base of Xbox 360 owners. Plain and simple, there’s just more people to buy the product. Maybe because of that you don’t need the huge media blitz to sell consoles. I dunno, but it’s a powerful fact on the side of those that think Reach will sell more copies.



Of course what I’m saying is based on generalities. Anecdotal evidence. I’m not really basing it on anything real, other than a gut feelings…But…



First day Reach sales reported by Microsoft appear to be less than the sales for Halo 3. Read all about it.



My gut tells me that Reach won’t sell more than Halo 3. My head tells me that my heart is wrong. I just don’t see that Reach is as easily marketable, compelling or as well known of a story to drive 11 million people to purchase the game.